Bayesianism and historical research in the social sciences

Taleban, Mohammad Reza

Bayesianism and historical research in the social sciences

Volume 11, Issue 2
March 2021

Pages 203-228

Document Type : Systematic Review

Author

M. R. Taleban

Institute of Imam Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution

Abstract

An overview of social science history implies numerous methodological controversies about the rationale of historical explanation or causal inference in a particular case with the design of "single case research". In this paper, three methodological criticisms of historical explanations of a particular case were first described. Then, the main answer was the methodologists who defended historical research or internal explanations, who argued that such criticisms were based on a particular logic of causal inference, which governed quantitative or statistical research tradition. the historical explanation and causal inference in a single case uses a different logic called Bayesianism.

Keywords

Historical Explanation

Case Studies

Process Tracing

Frequentism Logic

Bayesianism Logic

Subjects

History

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